Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 0.276748 0.312629 0.351524 0.396841 0.448220 0.504700 0.571545
2025-10-26 0.225232 0.273140 0.328954 0.398872 0.484254 0.585308 0.714261
2025-11-02 0.177862 0.229691 0.294063 0.380090 0.492372 0.634401 0.828425
2025-11-09 0.140861 0.192618 0.260764 0.357393 0.491470 0.671801 0.934225
2025-11-16 0.116734 0.168292 0.239943 0.347294 0.504999 0.729651 1.076600
2025-11-23 0.097649 0.147814 0.221094 0.336641 0.515648 0.784696 1.224034
2025-11-30 0.086561 0.137183 0.214691 0.342958 0.551944 0.882504 1.451837
2025-12-07 0.073356 0.121232 0.197758 0.330146 0.556091 0.930730 1.608653
2025-12-14 0.063837 0.109742 0.186148 0.323988 0.569805 0.996055 1.804549
2025-12-21 0.055951 0.099804 0.175621 0.317902 0.582383 1.060836 2.009823
2025-12-28 0.051391 0.094984 0.173159 0.325562 0.620463 1.176324 2.327874
2026-01-04 0.046135 0.088135 0.166069 0.323507 0.639825 1.259517 2.597013
2026-01-11 0.041923 0.082833 0.161432 0.326109 0.669982 1.370920 2.949090
2026-01-18 0.038823 0.079270 0.159666 0.334221 0.712777 1.515107 3.398457
2026-01-25 0.034168 0.071912 0.149325 0.323045 0.713250 1.570810 3.663602
2026-02-01 0.029704 0.064333 0.137495 0.306897 0.700304 1.595281 3.861977
2026-02-08 0.026641 0.059347 0.130494 0.300400 0.708207 1.668233 4.191018
2026-02-15 0.023872 0.054631 0.123442 0.292717 0.712101 1.732483 4.511164
2026-02-22 0.022424 0.052731 0.122475 0.299273 0.751620 1.889706 5.103530
2026-03-01 0.020038 0.048299 0.115032 0.288895 0.747007 1.935520 5.405540
2026-03-08 0.018259 0.045095 0.110088 0.284059 0.755975 2.018082 5.826969
2026-03-15 0.016669 0.042146 0.105377 0.279118 0.763878 2.099164 6.260842
2026-03-22 0.015854 0.041052 0.105165 0.286088 0.805606 2.280450 7.031330